Strategists at some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are expressing growing concerns about the potential market fallout from the standoff over raising the U.S. debt ceiling. The S&P 500 is currently up more than 9% this year, reaching its highest point since August 2022. Equity investors appear unfazed as the deadline to avoid a catastrophic U.S. government default approaches, as they believe lawmakers will eventually reach a deal. However, some strategists warn that stocks could become volatile in the days leading up to the X-date of June 1, when the federal government could run out of money to pay its bills.
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, states that the market appears more vulnerable to volatility around the debt ceiling. If a snag occurs in the next week or so, it could impact market pricing. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have ended discussions without an agreement on how to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, and they will continue to negotiate with less than two weeks remaining before a potential default.
Although concerns have arisen in bond markets, stocks have remained relatively calm, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) standing near its lowest levels since late 2021. The majority of investors believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date, according to a survey conducted by BofA Global Research. However, some worry that the current market and economic backdrop may leave stocks more vulnerable than during the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, which resulted in a historic downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Strategists at JPMorgan suggest that the current market environment could be worse for risky assets due to factors such as higher inflation, richer valuations, and tighter monetary policy. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a higher forward earnings estimate multiple compared to its historical average. Other benchmarks, such as interest rates and inflation, are also less favorable than they were in 2011. JPMorgan warns that even a close call on the debt ceiling could disrupt markets and lead to higher instability.
UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates a potential decline of over 10% in the S&P 500 if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement before the X-date, although that is not their base case. The firm highlights that equity volatility typically increases as the X-date approaches. If the market does not perceive a high probability of a resolution by early next week, UBS expects equity volatility, T-Bill yields, and credit default swaps to rise.
Despite the relatively calm VIX, there have been recent large options trades that would profit from a significant increase in the fear gauge over the next few months. This indicates concerns over a steep market decline. Henry Schwartz, global head of client engagement, data & access solutions at Cboe Global Markets, suggests a binary outcome: either a settlement on the debt ceiling issue, with the VIX staying at 17, or a default that could push the VIX to 90.
The escalating concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling put the stock market at risk, with worries about potential market volatility. Although stock prices are currently rising, the possibility of a catastrophic U.S. government default is a looming threat. Equity investors remain calm, expecting a deal to be reached eventually, but experts warn of potential market turbulence as the June 1 deadline approaches. The Federal Reserve's policy rate is at a 15-year high, and stock valuations are expensive compared to historical levels, increasing the vulnerability of stocks. While optimism persists, there is a growing concern that the current market and economic conditions could be worse for risky assets compared to the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis. Factors such as the S&P 500's high trading multiple, aggressive rate hikes, inflation and lower forward earnings estimates contribute to this apprehension. Analysts caution that even a close call on the debt ceiling could disrupt the market, leading to higher instability. Financial institutions like UBS Global Wealth Management anticipate a potential decline in the S&P 500 if an agreement is not reached in time. This situation highlights the binary nature of the outcome, where the market's future hinges on either a resolution or a default, both of which could have significant repercussions.
As the deadline approaches, investors closely monitor the equity markets and brace for the potential increase in volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, has remained relatively calm, but recent large options trades indicate concerns over a sharp market decline. Whether the debt ceiling issue is resolved or defaults, the market's reaction is expected to be significant, with the VIX possibly soaring to record highs. The coming days will determine if lawmakers can reach an agreement and avert a disastrous first-ever U.S. government default. Until then, market participants remain cautiously optimistic but recognize the potential risks that lie ahead.
