 |
| USD: MUFG's analysis suggests banking sector risks will determine FX moves |
The banking sector's challenges will have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, according to analysts at MUFG. With a growing global banking crisis, the Japanese yen is expected to remain the most stable currency. Despite the US dollar's recent decline, MUFG suggests a rebound could be on the horizon as concerns over banking sector issues grow.
MUFG's analysts have highlighted the strength of euro-zone banks, which have remained more resilient than their US counterparts. The Euro Stoxx 600 Bank Index has remained unchanged this year, while the S&P 500 equivalent has dropped by more than 20%. However, if confidence in European banks continues to deteriorate, the EUR/USD correction could have further to go.
As the global banking sector crisis deepens, liquidity problems could easily morph into credit issues for other sectors of the economy. MUFG suggests that while this may not be a repeat of 2008, it could be similar in many ways. In this scenario, the Japanese yen would remain the best-performing currency, while the AUD and NZD could potentially lose their recent resilience.
Overall, MUFG's analysis highlights the importance of keeping an eye on the banking sector's performance, as it will undoubtedly affect the foreign exchange market.
