So You Wanted to Own Trump (!)
How a Reagan ad, the TACO trade, and one bruised ego sent Canada into Beijing's arms.
There’s something darkly funny about watching the North American alliance come apart not over a border dispute or an ideology, but over a 60-second TV ad.
An ad.
That was all it took to turn the world’s longest undefended border into a geopolitical kill zone.
In October 2025, the Government of Ontario decided to light $75 million on fire to troll the President of the United States. Premier Doug Ford bought prime-time air slots across Republican America to play archival footage of Ronald Reagan warning against trade wars.
Bypass the gridlock in Ottawa and appeal directly to the MAGA base’s nostalgia for the Gipper. It was paradiplomacy at its most brazen.
It was also a spectacular miscalculation.
Donald Trump didn’t see a homage to conservative values. He saw a personal attack.
Within days, Trump was on Truth Social accusing America’s closest ally of fraudulently editing the clip and engaging in election interference. He terminated trade negotiations. He threatened punitive tariffs.
He torched the relationship because a provincial government in Canada had the audacity to remind him what Republicans used to believe.
To understand why Trump went nuclear, it helps to understand the TACO trade.
By mid-2025, Wall Street had priced in a specific rhythm to the Trump presidency. Traders called it Trump Always Chickens Out.
The pattern was reliable. Threaten economic Armageddon, watch the markets dip, get an earful from donors, then quietly back down.
It was free money for anyone paying attention.
But when the nickname leaked to the press, it hit the one place Trump is vulnerable. His ego.
Trump’s entire brand is built on being the tough guy who never blinks. So when the Ontario ad aired, Trump couldn’t just brush it off. He had to prove the theory wrong.
He had to double down just to show he wasn’t chickening out.
Doug Ford, a man who operates with the subtle grace of a sledgehammer, claimed Mission Accomplished because the ad got a billion impressions.
Great work, Doug.
The clicks were great. The continent’s diplomatic architecture? Not so much.
And into this vacuum stepped Mark Carney.
The Canadian Prime Minister led a shaky minority government that survives only by the grace of the NDP and Greens. He saw the writing on the wall. If the U.S. was going to be hostile, Canada needed new friends.
So less than a week after Trump blew up the trade talks, Carney was in South Korea shaking hands with Xi Jinping.
It was a pivot so sharp it gave whiplash to everyone watching.
The Resilience Doctrine, they called it. In plain English, Canada is done waiting for Washington.
Carney knows the risks. Pivoting to Beijing while Washington views China as an existential threat is a high-wire act with no net. But the alternative was waiting for Trump to calm down, a strategy that clearly wasn’t working.
So Carney flew to Asia. He talked about ruptures in the international order. He signaled that Canada is open for business with anyone who isn’t currently threatening them with tariffs.
The fallout on the ground has been immediate and stupid.
The Thanksgiving Basket became a horror show. Turkey prices were artificially suppressed to get people in the door, but everything else skyrocketed. Aluminum foil up 40%. Canned goods surging.
Tariff rates hit levels not seen since 1941.
While Americans were paying more to wrap their leftovers, Canadians were simply staying home.
Tourism data showed a massive inversion. Canadians, who usually flock south, stopped crossing the border. Not just because of costs but because the vibe had shifted.
The friendly neighbor act was dead.
The irony is almost too much to bear. Ronald Reagan’s voice was used to save free trade, and instead, it became the catalyst that pushed Canada into China’s orbit.
The North American idea is on life support. The Canadian PM is taking photo-ops with autocrats in the Gulf and Beijing.
And the price of cranberry sauce is up twenty percent.
Truly outstanding statecraft.