Really appreciate such a detailed breakdown - a few points here genuinely broaden my perspective on what happened in September. I've been following the Małaszewicze issue and Poland geo-economic potential for a while now, especially since, as a Polish observer with a multipolar outlook. I see BRI as an opportunity, rather than a threat. This episode, however, seems to narrow that opportunity quite significantly.
In my own analysis, I focused on a different angle: that the shutdown didn't disrupt flow, but may have permanently shaken Beijing's trust in Poland as a partner - pushing China to accelerate long-term route diversification away from Poland, with Russia and alternative corridors emerging as the unexpected winner.
In my opinion, Poland didn't "kick" anyone here - it mostly kicked itself. The move weakened its own position on the Silk Road and pushed China to rely less on Poland, not more. It also handed a clear win to Russia, which is now taking more traffic (and Arctic/northern options are being prioritized) - so if the goal was to spite Minsk or Moscow, there's not much to celebrate.
If you want a colder, long-term look at the consequences, feel free to check my profile.
Really appreciate such a detailed breakdown - a few points here genuinely broaden my perspective on what happened in September. I've been following the Małaszewicze issue and Poland geo-economic potential for a while now, especially since, as a Polish observer with a multipolar outlook. I see BRI as an opportunity, rather than a threat. This episode, however, seems to narrow that opportunity quite significantly.
In my own analysis, I focused on a different angle: that the shutdown didn't disrupt flow, but may have permanently shaken Beijing's trust in Poland as a partner - pushing China to accelerate long-term route diversification away from Poland, with Russia and alternative corridors emerging as the unexpected winner.
If you're interested in that more structural long-term perspective, here's my take:https://ceap2040.substack.com/p/the-malaszewicze-blunder-how-poland
Would be very interested to hear how you see Poland's leverage evolving after this episode.
This is the way to stand up to these thugs. Kick them where it hurts.
In my opinion, Poland didn't "kick" anyone here - it mostly kicked itself. The move weakened its own position on the Silk Road and pushed China to rely less on Poland, not more. It also handed a clear win to Russia, which is now taking more traffic (and Arctic/northern options are being prioritized) - so if the goal was to spite Minsk or Moscow, there's not much to celebrate.
If you want a colder, long-term look at the consequences, feel free to check my profile.