Brazil Won't Humiliate Itself
Lula Ghosts Trump Over 50% Tariffs
Brazil's 50% tariff wall just went up and Lula won't pick up the phone.
Smart move.
The whole thing reads like something from the 1960s - Brazilian president refuses to grovel, mentions the '64 coup (that one the CIA definitely didn't have anything to do with), calls Bolsonaro a traitor. Meanwhile Trump's demanding Brazil drop prosecutions of his golf buddy who tried to overturn an election. Normal diplomatic stuff.
But here's the thing. Brazil doesn't actually need the US that much. Their trade-to-GDP ratio sits around 30% - compare that to Germany at 90% or Vietnam pushing 200%.
They've been running protectionist policies since forever. An iPhone costs three grand there because of existing tariffs. This isn't Canada where 75% of exports go straight to America.
The BRICS Card
Lula's already on the phone with Modi and Xi. Not about reciprocal tariffs - he's thinking bigger.
Brazil controls 20% of global freshwater. Produces more soybeans than anyone except the US. Sits on massive rare earth deposits they haven't even started mining properly yet. And China just opened up their coffee market right as these tariffs hit.
Timing's funny like that.
But the real gem: niobium reserves that make up 98% of global supply. You need that stuff for superconducting magnets, jet engines, basically anything high-tech. They've got lithium in the Jequitinhonha Valley nobody talks about.
Lula's new "national sovereignty" policy for strategic minerals... that's the actual story. Stop shipping raw ore to get processed elsewhere. Control the whole chain.
The WTO complaint's theater. Everyone files those, nothing happens.
The BRICS coordination though - India needs fertilizer, China needs soybeans and iron ore, Russia needs friends with votes at the UN. Brazil's got all that.
Trump wants to force Brazil to drop charges against Bolsonaro. Good luck. The Brazilian military already tried backing him in 2022 and chickened out at the last minute. Nobody's risking their neck for him now.
As for making Brazil bend the knee publicly - Lula came up through union organizing under a military dictatorship. Did prison time. The man doesn't scare easy.
"I was born negotiating"
Meanwhile American farmers are importing Russian fertilizer while Trump screams about trade wars. India's telling him to pound sand when he complains about their Russian oil purchases.
Canada sitting on 31% of global potash reserves - more than Russia and Belarus combined - watching Trump tax his own agricultural sector into the ground.
China's state media posting videos about Brazilian coffee companies getting export licenses. Nothing to see here.
If BRICS, EU, Mexico, Canada and Japan all got together and called his bluff simultaneously, the entire US economy would seize up. Every business, politician and financier would turn on him overnight.
Problem is the prisoner's dilemma - everybody wants someone else to go first.
Except apparently Lula.
Most world leaders care about their people (at least theoretically). Trump and his crew genuinely don't give a damn about Americans, so they're fine with everyone suffering. That asymmetry makes standing up costly. Your people suffer while you're trying to do the right thing. Easy to say "stand up to him," harder when you're the one making that call.
Brazil's currency might take a hit short-term. Some export companies definitely sweating.
But long-term...
They're the Saudi Arabia of water, food, and critical minerals. Population of 203 million. Most of South America's industrial base. Largest economy in Latin America by far. They'll manage.
The world's been addicted to US consumer spending (68% of their GDP) but every country with half a brain is reconsidering that addiction now. Just look at China and Brazil on soybeans from last time Trump tried this. Mercosur agreements with the EU. New BRICS partnerships.
Meanwhile Lula's planning equal taxation for US tech companies. Strategic minerals become "national sovereignty." No more shipping raw materials to add value somewhere else.
Trump's got 3.5 years left. Brazil's been around for 500.