$7 Billion a Day: America’s Debt Spiral
The Treasury nears $39 trillion as Congress turns again to a commission with no power to force change.
Maya MacGuineas sat before the Senate’s Fiscal Responsibility Subcommittee on March 11 with charts showing the country is borrowing itself into a corner. Senators nodded. Asked thoughtful questions. Then walked back to a Capitol where the law they passed eight months ago is already adding trillions to the deficit, according to the CBO’s own score published the same week.
Washington loves diagnosing the disease while injecting the patient with more of the virus.
The national debt hit $38.86 trillion as of early March, growing at roughly $7 billion a day. The Treasury will cross $39 trillion before the month ends. Net interest payments on federal debt now exceed what the country spends on its entire military. Servicing yesterday’s borrowing costs more than fielding the most expensive war machine in human history.
Congress, naturally, has a plan. Several plans. All involving commissions.
The latest proposal envisions a bipartisan fiscal commission that would review all federal spending, produce recommendations, and secure floor votes under strict timelines. It would do everything Congress was elected to do but has declined to attempt for two decades.
Simpson-Bowles reported in 2010. Politely shelved. The supercommittee of 2011 deadlocked. Debt ceiling negotiations have occasionally imposed modest caps that did nothing to alter the trajectory. Every serious attempt at fiscal consolidation has been strangled by the same bipartisan consensus: cut nothing voters notice, tax nothing donors fund.
And then there is DOGE. Launched with promises of $2 trillion in savings. Quietly revised to $1 trillion. Then $150 billion. A DOGE employee admitted under deposition on March 16 that the initiative’s savings did little, if anything, for the deficit. Brookings put verified savings around $5 to $6 billion. One-tenth of one percent of federal spending. Of 30 programs Trump proposed slashing in his 2026 budget, one was eliminated. The bills Congress approved for 2026 actually increase spending from 2025 levels.
The OBBBA, the flagship legislative achievement, pushes federal debt held by the public to 127% of GDP by 2034 under the CBO’s score. If its temporary provisions become permanent, as temporary provisions in Washington always do, debt reaches 129%. This is the legislature now being asked to staff a commission on fiscal responsibility.
The CRFB warned this month that by 2031, the average interest rate on federal debt will exceed the rate of economic growth. When that crossover happens, debt becomes self-reinforcing. Higher borrowing pushes rates up. Slower growth shrinks revenues. Wider deficits demand more borrowing. Economists call it a feedback loop. Everyone else should call it a trap.
Social Security’s trust fund faces insolvency within seven years. Medicare is on a similar clock. When those deadlines hit, the law mandates automatic benefit cuts. Not gradual reforms. Not elegant commission recommendations. Abrupt reductions to checks that 70 million Americans depend on.
The Fortune piece that kicked off this discussion quotes Hemingway on bankruptcy: gradually and then suddenly. The analogy flatters Washington. Hemingway’s character at least had the excuse of not seeing it coming. Every senator in that subcommittee hearing has$ read the CBO projections. Every member who voted for the OBBBA saw the score. The debt figure is published daily, to the penny, on the Treasury’s own website.
The danger is that it does, and has decided to live with it until the math makes the decision for them.
Sources:
National Debt Reaches $38.86 Trillion – Joint Economic Committee
OBBBA Dynamic Score Comes In at $4.7 Trillion – CRFB
A ‘Debt Spiral’ Before a Fiscal Crisis – Fortune
Interest on the National Debt Has Tripled Since 2020 – Fortune
DOGE Staffer Deposition on Deficit Impact – Fortune
Congress Rejected Most of Trump’s Spending Cuts – Washington Times
CBO Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
Debt Rises to 175% of GDP Under CBO Long-Term Outlook – CRFB