In a startling revelation, two separate reports unveiled a concerning trend of escalating investment in nuclear arsenals by major powers, most notably China, against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions. The reports, released on Monday, shed light on the mounting concerns surrounding nuclear armament across the globe.
According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the collective expenditure of the world's nine nuclear-armed states on their arsenals reached a staggering $82.9 billion in 2022. Notably, the United States accounted for over half of this figure. Meanwhile, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published a report disclosing that the total number of nuclear warheads possessed by Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States stood at 12,512 at the start of this year. This marked a decrease from 12,710 warheads recorded in early 2022.
However, the SIPRI report highlighted a concerning trend. While some of the reduction in warheads could be attributed to the dismantling of older ones, there was an increase of 86 warheads in "military stockpiles for potential use" compared to the previous year. This marked a shift in the previous declining trend of nuclear weaponry worldwide.
SIPRI director Dan Smith expressed his concerns, stating, "We are approaching, or maybe have already reached, the end of a long period of the number of nuclear weapons worldwide declining." Smith drew attention to the growing stockpile of usable nuclear warheads, emphasizing that the numbers were beginning to rise. However, he also reassured that these figures remained significantly lower than the heights witnessed in the 1980s when the number of nuclear warheads exceeded 70,000.
The increase in stockpiles was primarily driven by China, which expanded its arsenal from 350 to 410 warheads. Other countries such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea also augmented their stockpiles, albeit to a lesser extent. Russia's arsenal grew marginally, from 4,477 to 4,489 warheads, while the remaining nuclear powers maintained the size of their arsenals.
The dominance of Russia and the United States in the global nuclear landscape remains evident, with both countries possessing nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons.
ICAN's findings supported the notion of increased spending on nuclear weapons. The report revealed a three percent rise in global nuclear weapons spending from the previous year, marking the third consecutive annual increase. The total spending in 2022 amounted to a staggering $82.9 billion, equivalent to $157,664 per minute.
Leading the expenditure was the United States, with a budget of $43.7 billion. Although slightly lower than the previous year, it still far surpassed other countries. China followed closely with $11.7 billion, while Russia allocated $9.6 billion, both reflecting an increase of around six percent from 2021. India witnessed the most significant surge in spending, with a 21.8 percent increase to $2.7 billion. Britain also raised its spending by 11 percent, reaching $6.8 billion.
The ICAN report further shed light on the substantial contracts awarded to arms companies involved in nuclear weapons production. These contracts amounted to nearly $16 billion in 2022. The companies then spent approximately $113 million on lobbying efforts in the United States and France alone. Remarkably, nuclear-armed countries worldwide have existing contracts with companies worth at least $278.6 billion, some of which extend until 2040.
The reports also highlighted the setbacks in diplomatic efforts to control and disarm nuclear weapons, particularly due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February of the previous year. As a result, Russia suspended its participation in New START, a treaty that limits warheads and enables verification by both sides. However, it should be noted that the war in Ukraine does not fully explain the increase in stockpiles, as the majority of the surge occurred in countries not directly involved.
The rise in nuclear armament by China was deemed significant by experts, who attributed it to the nation's expanding economy and growing global influence. SIPRI director Dan Smith remarked, "What we're seeing is China stepping up as a world power."
As global tensions continue to simmer, the surge in nuclear weapons expenditure and the expansion of arsenals among major powers raise serious concerns about the trajectory of international security. The international community is left grappling with the daunting challenge of mitigating these risks and fostering dialogue to address the growing threat posed by nuclear weapons.
